First “major” Transaction, mixed Experiences. Help me out.

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by chkgk on Reddit

So, I purchased a physical good with bitcoin yesterday. The transaction involved ~5 BTC, which i consider “reasonably large”. Of course I also added/paid the usual transaction fee.

Turns out, it took 49min for the transaction to be confirmed ONCE. Sure, the merchant’s site reported an incoming unconfirmed transaction after about a minute, but nevertheless, having to wait ~50min for ONE single confirmation got me thinking. I checked the blockchain throughout and despite the volume of the transaction and the included fee it still took 3 blocks before it got included.

Is there a way to calculate the likelihood of a transaction being included in the NEXT block (or the next 2 blocks) as a function of Volume, Size and Fee that you guys could point me too?

TL;DR: 5BTC transaction including fee took 50min for first confirmation. Any way to calculate the fee required to get a transaction included in the NEXT block?

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